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FRBSF Economic Letter articles

321 total articles

A semi-regular collection of essays on economic research and data published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Topics include bank interest rate forecasts, changes in U.S. monetary policy, labor outlooks, and trends in investment.

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Recently added articles from FRBSF Economic Letter:

The Fed's monetary policy response to the current crisis.

May 22, 2009 ... The global financial market turmoil that started in August 2007 has been followed by a severe economic downturn. Indeed, the U.S. economic recession is on track to be the longest and deepest of the postwar period. This Economic Letter describes the Federal Reserve's monetary policy ...

A Minsky Meltdown: Lessons for Central Bankers.

May 01, 2009; ... This Economic Letter is adapted from a speech delivered by Janet L. Yellen, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, to the 18th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference on the State of the U.S. and World Economies on April 16, 2009, in New York City. It's a ...

Are fiscal stimulus funds going to the "right" states?

Apr 17, 2009; ... The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) was signed into law on February 17, and already its impact is being felt in state capitals around the nation. Governors and state legislators are incorporating expected stimulus funds into 2009-2010 budgets and a number of state ...

Interprovincial inequality in China.

Apr 10, 2009; ... Over the past 30 years, China has transformed itself, posting extraordinary rates of growth and increasing the living standards of nearly all its citizens. At the same time, China has become a far less equal nation, with vast differences emerging between those living in rural versus urban ...

The outlook for productivity growth: symposium summary.

Mar 20, 2009; ... This Economic Letter summarizes several papers presented at the symposium "The Outlook for Future Productivity Growth" hosted November 14, 2008, by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's Center for the Study of Innovation and Productivity (CSIP). The papers are listed at the end and ...

2008 annual pacific basin conference: summary.

Mar 13, 2009; ... This Economic Letter summarizes the papers presented at the 2008 Annual Pacific Basin conference held September 19-20, 2008, at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco under the sponsorship of the Bank's Center for Pacific Basin Studies. Conference papers are listed at the end and are ...

How will a credit crunch affect small business finance?

Mar 06, 2009; ... There is considerable concern about the duration and severity of the credit crunch caused by the current financial crisis. Some evidence indicates that this could become one of the worst credit crunches in recent history. Economists generally define a credit crunch as a significant ...

Tax credits for job creation and retention: what can we learn from the states?

Feb 20, 2009; ... During the current recession, the economy has lost about 3.6 million jobs. In January, the nation's unemployment rate hit 7.6%, and forecasters expect further job losses and higher unemployment rates in the months ahead. In order to boost the economy and stem job losses, Congress has just ...

Out-of-market small business loans.

Feb 13, 2009; ... Small businesses play a critical role in the U.S. economy accounting for roughly half of all private employment and more than half of output, according to the U.S. Small Business Administration. Small businesses need financing to operate and grow, and bank lending is an important source of ...

House prices and bank loan performance.

Feb 06, 2009; ... The current financial crisis in the United States has its roots in falling real estate values. Indeed, a number of studies have shown a strong link between house price depreciation and defaults on residential mortgages (Doms, Furlong, and Krainer 2007). This Economic Letter reports on new ...

Labor supply responses to changes in wealth and credit.

Jan 30, 2009; ... Recent declines in house prices and the stock market have led to the most substantial contraction in household wealth since the Great Depression. From the third quarter of 2007 through the third quarter of 2008, household wealth shrank by $6.7 trillion (Federal Reserve Board of Governors ...

Behavior of Libor in the current financial crisis.

Jan 23, 2009; ... One of the key features of the financial turmoil of the past year has been the credit crunch. For borrowing of many kinds, terms are tougher and interest rates are higher, reflecting skyrocketing risk premiums. Of particular importance are the elevated risk premiums on interbank ...

The Tech Pulse Index: recent trends in tech-sector activity.

Jan 14, 2009; ... This Economic Letter introduces the new Tech Pulse Index, a measure that tracks economic activity in the U.S. information technology (IT) sector. The index first appeared under the sponsorship of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; due to substantial revisions of the econometric model ...

U.S. monetary policy objectives in the short and long run.

Jan 09, 2009; ... This Economic Letter is adapted from a speech delivered by Janet L. Yellen, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, on January 4, 2009, to the Andrew Brimmer Policy Forum during the IBEFA/ASSA meeting held in San Francisco. Today the Federal Reserve faces ...

Economic conditions in Korea and Japan: a monetary policymaker's report.

Dec 19, 2008; ... Each year, the President of the San Francisco Fed joins the Federal Reserve Board Governor responsible for liaison with Asia on a "fact-finding" trip to the region. These trips advance the Bank's broad objectives of serving as a repository of expertise on economic, banking, and financial ...

Convergence of long-term bond yields in the euro area.

Nov 21, 2008; ... Following years of negotiations involving over a dozen European nations, the Maastricht treaty was signed on February 7, 1992, and established the terms and basic timeline for European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Despite some bumps along the way, such as the exchange rate mechanism ...

The mortgage meltdown, financial markets, and the economy.

Nov 07, 2008; ... This Economic Letter is adapted from a speech delivered by Janet L. Yellen, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, on October 30, 2008, to the UC Berkeley-UCLA Symposium "The Mortgage Meltdown, the Economy, and Public Policy," at the University of California, ...

Monetary policy and asset prices.

Oct 31, 2008; ... Nearly seven years have passed since the last recession ended in November 2001. That recession was characterized by an unwinding of excess business investment in the aftermath of a burst U.S. stock market bubble (see Lansing 2003a). During the early years of the recovery, an accommodative ...

What is liquidity risk?

Oct 24, 2008; ... All firms, particularly financial institutions, require access to borrowed funds to carry out their operations, from paying their near-term obligations to making long-term strategic investments. An inability to acquire such funding within a reasonable timeframe could place a firm at risk, ...

Sectoral reallocation and unemployment.

Oct 17, 2008; ... The current downturn has caused the U.S. unemployment rate to rise by nearly 2 percentage points and approach the high of 6.3% reached in the aftermath of the 2001 recession. High unemployment generally is associated with increased slack in labor markets, hence reduced pressure for wage ...