Recently added articles from Monthly Weather Review:
Predictability Associated with the Downstream Impacts of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Methodology and a Case Study of Typhoon Nabi (2005)
Sep 01, 2008; Harr, Patrick A; Anwender, Doris; Jones, Sarah C ... ABSTRACT Measures of the variability among ensemble members from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction ensemble prediction system are examined with respect to forecasts of the extratropical transition (ET) of Typhoon Nabi over the western North Pacific during September 2005 ....
Predictability Associated with the Downstream Impacts of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Case Studies
Sep 01, 2008; Anwender, Doris; Harr, Patrick A; Jones, Sarah C ... ABSTRACT The extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones often has a negative impact on the predictability of the atmospheric situation both around the ET event and farther downstream. The predictability of five ET cases of different intensities in the North Atlantic and the ...
Collaborative Effects of Cold Surge and Tropical Depression-Type Disturbance on Heavy Rainfall in Central Vietnam
Sep 01, 2008; Yokoi, Satoru; Matsumoto, Jun ... ABSTRACT This paper reveals synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions over the South China Sea (SCS) that cause heavy rainfall in central Vietnam through case study and composite analyses. The heavy rainfall event discussed in this study occurred on 2-3 November 1999. Precipitation in Hue ...
Loop Current Response to Hurricanes Isidore and Lili
Sep 01, 2008; Shay, Lynn K; Uhlhorn, Eric W ... ABSTRACT Recent hurricane activity over the Gulf of Mexico basin has underscored the importance of the Loop Current (LC) and its deep, warm thermal structure on hurricane intensity. During Hurricanes Isidore and Lili in 2002, research flights were conducted from both National Oceanic and ...
Upper-Ocean Thermal Structure and the Western North Pacific Category 5 Typhoons. Part I: Ocean Features and the Category 5 Typhoons' Intensification
Sep 01, 2008; Lin, I-I; Wu, Chun-Chieh; Pun, Iam-Fei; Ko, Dong-Shan ... ABSTRACT Category 5 cyclones are the most intense and devastating cyclones on earth. With increasing observations of category 5 cyclones, such as Hurricane Katrina (2005), Rita (2005), Mitch (1998), and Supertyphoon Maemi (2003) found to intensify on warm ocean features (i.e., regions of ...
An Observational Study of Environmental Dynamical Control of Tropical Cyclone Intensity in the Atlantic
Sep 01, 2008; Zeng, Zhihua; Chen, Lianshou; Wang, Yuqing ... ABSTRACT An attempt has been made to extend the analysis of environmental dynamical control of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity recently performed for the western North Pacific to the North Atlantic. The results show that both the vertical shear and translational speed have negative ...
Downscaling of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts for Cases of Severe Weather: Ensemble Statistics and Cluster Analysis
Sep 01, 2008; Brankovic, Cedo; Matjacic, Blazenka; Ivatek-Sahdan, Stjepan; Buizza, Roberto ... ABSTRACT Dynamical downscaling has been applied to global ensemble forecasts to assess its impact for four cases of severe weather (precipitation and wind) over various parts of Croatia. It was performed with the Croatian 12.2-km version of the Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique ...
Comparison of a 51-Member Low-Resolution (T^sub L^399L62) Ensemble with a 6-Member High-Resolution (T^sub L^799L91) Lagged-Forecast Ensemble
Sep 01, 2008; Buizza, Roberto ... ABSTRACT The 51-member T^sub L^399L62 ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS51) is compared with a lagged ensemble system based on the six most recent ECMWF T^sub L^799L91 forecasts (LAG6). The EPS51 and LAG6 systems are compared to two 6-member ensembles with a "weighted" ensemble-mean: ...
An Ensemble-Based Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Scheme. Part I: Technical Formulation and Preliminary Test
Sep 01, 2008; Liu, Chengsi; Xiao, Qingnong; Wang, Bin ... ABSTRACT Applying a flow-dependent background error covariance (B matrix) in variational data assimilation has been a topic of interest among researchers in recent years. In this paper, an ensemble-based four-dimensional variational (En4DVAR) algorithm, designed by the authors, is ...
A New Verification Method to Ensure Consistent Ensemble Forecasts through Calibrated Precipitation Downscaling Models
Sep 01, 2008; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Deidda, Roberto; Vivoni, Enrique R ... ABSTRACT A new verification method is proposed to test the consistency of ensemble high-resolution precipitation fields forecasted by calibrated downscaling models. The method is based on a generalization of the verification rank histogram and tests the exceedance probability of a fixed ...
An Object-Oriented Verification of Three NWP Model Formulations via Cluster Analysis: An Objective and a Subjective Analysis
Sep 01, 2008; Marzban, Caren; Sandgathe, Scott; Lyons, Hilary ... ABSTRACT Recently, an object-oriented verification scheme was developed for assessing errors in forecasts of spatial fields. The main goal of the scheme was to allow the automatic and objective evaluation of a large number of forecasts. However, processing speed was an obstacle. Here, it ...
Characteristics of High-Resolution Versions of the Met Office Unified Model for Forecasting Convection over the United Kingdom
Sep 01, 2008; Lean, Humphrey W; Clark, Peter A; Dixon, Mark; Roberts, Nigel M; Fitch, Anna; Forbes, Richard; Halliwell, Carol ... ABSTRACT With many operational centers moving toward order 1-km-gridlength models for routine weather forecasting, this paper presents a systematic investigation of the properties of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for short-range forecasting of convective ...
The Impact of Analysis Error on Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Sep 01, 2008; Swanson, Kyle L; Roebber, Paul J ... ABSTRACT All meteorological analyzed fields contain errors, the magnitude of which ultimately determines the point at which a given forecast will fail. Here, the authors explore the extent to which analysis difference fields capture certain aspects of the actual but unknowable ...
A Revised Hurricane Pressure-Wind Model
Sep 01, 2008; Holland, Greg ... ABSTRACT A new technique for relating central pressure and maximum winds in tropical cyclones is presented, together with a method of objectively determining a derivative of the Holland b parameter, b^sub s^, which relates directly to surface winds and varies with the pressure drop into ...
The Mesoscale Characteristics of Tropical Oceanic Precipitation during Kelvin and Mixed Rossby-Gravity Wave Events
Sep 01, 2008; Holder, Christopher T; Yuter, Sandra E; Sobel, Adam H; Aiyyer, Anantha R ... ABSTRACT Precipitation structures within Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) wave troughs near Kwajalein Atoll during the 1999-2003 rainy seasons are analyzed using three-dimensional ground-based radar data and upper-air sounding data. Consistent with previous work, wave troughs are ...
Synoptic Control of Mesoscale Precipitating Systems in the Pacific Northwest
Sep 01, 2008; Roebber, Paul J; Swanson, Kyle L; Ghorai, Jugal K ... ABSTRACT This research examines whether an adequate representation of flow features on the synoptic scale allows for the skillful inference of mesoscale precipitating systems. The focus is on the specific problem of land-falling systems on the west coast of the United States for a ...
Observation of the Diurnal Cycle in the Low Troposphere of West Africa
Sep 01, 2008; Lothon, Marie; Saïd, Frédérique; Lohou, Fabienne; Campistron, Bernard ... ABSTRACT The authors give an overview of the diurnal cycle of the low troposphere during 2006 at two different sites, Niamey (Niger) and Nangatchori (Benin). This study is partly based on the first observations of UHF wind profilers ever made in West Africa in the context of the African ...
Systematic Error Correction of Dynamical Seasonal Prediction of Sea Surface Temperature Using a Stepwise Pattern Project Method
Sep 01, 2008; Kug, Jong-Seong; Lee, June-Yi; Kang, In-Sik ... ABSTRACT Every dynamical climate prediction model has significant errors in its mean state and anomaly field, thus degrading its performance in climate prediction. In addition to correcting the model's systematic errors in the mean state, it is also possible to correct systematic errors ...
Vortex Lines within Low-Level Mesocyclones Obtained from Pseudo-Dual-Doppler Radar Observations
Sep 01, 2008; Markowski, Paul; Rasmussen, Erik; Straka, Jerry; Davies-Jones, Robert; Richardson, Yvette; Trapp, Robert J ... ABSTRACT Vortex lines passing through the low-level mesocyclone regions of six supercell thunderstorms (three nontornadic, three tornadic) are computed from pseudo-dual-Doppler airborne radar observations obtained during the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment ...
Climatology of High Wind Events in the Owens Valley, California
Sep 01, 2008; Zhong, Shiyuan; Li, Ju; Whiteman, C David; Bian, Xindi; Yao, Wenqing ... ABSTRACT The climatology of high wind events in the Owens Valley, California, a deep valley located just east of the southern Sierra Nevada, is described using data from six automated weather stations distributed along the valley axis in combination with the North American Regional ...