Monthly Weather Review back issues from June 2008:
A Perfect Prognosis Scheme for Forecasting Warm-Season Lightning over Florida
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT This study develops and evaluates a statistical scheme for forecasting warm-season lightning over Florida. Four warm seasons of analysis data from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network are used in a perfect prognosis ...
Convective Storm Initiation in a Moist Tropical Environment
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT Radar and satellite data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission-Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (TRMM-LBA) project have been examined to determine causes for convective storm initiation in the southwest Amazon region. The locations and times of storm initiation were based ...
Preliminary Impact Studies Using Global Positioning System Radio Occultation Profiles at NCEP
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT Following the successful launch of the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) satellites in April 2006, NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) is planning to use the COSMIC data in its next-generation Global Data Assimilation System ....
Using Observed Spatial Correlation Structures to Increase the Skill of Subseasonal Forecasts
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT Model deficiencies limit a subseasonal or seasonal forecast system's ability to produce accurate predictions. In this paper, an approach for transforming the output of a forecast system into a revised forecast is presented; it is designed to correct for some of the deficiencies ...
A Comparison of Two Shallow-Water Models with Nonconforming Adaptive Grids
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT In an effort to study the applicability of adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) techniques to atmospheric models, an interpolation-based spectral element shallow-water model on a cubed-sphere grid is compared to a block-structured finite-volume method in latitude-longitude geometry ....
Comparison of WRF Model-Simulated and MODIS-Derived Cloud Data
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT In this study, the ability of different combinations of bulk cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model to realistically simulate the wide variety of cloud types associated with an ...
The Integral Role of a Diabetic Rossby Vortex in a Heavy Snowfall Event
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT On 24-25 February 2005, a significant East Coast cyclone deposited from 4 to nearly 12 in. (~10-30 cm) of snow on parts of the northeastern United States. The heaviest snowfall and most rapid deepening of the cyclone coincided with the favorable positioning of an upper-level, ...
Assessing the Skill of an All-Season Statistical Forecast Model for the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT Motivated by an attempt to augment dynamical models in predicting the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), and to provide a realistic benchmark to those models, the predictive skill of a multivariate lagregression statistical model has been comprehensively explored in the present ...
Mesoscale Features Associated with Tropical Cyclone Formations in the Western North Pacific
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT The mesoscale features of 124 tropical cyclone formations in the western North Pacific Ocean during 1999-2004 are investigated through large-scale analyses, satellite infrared brightness temperature (TB), and Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) oceanic wind data. Based on low-level ...
Prediction of Landfalling Hurricanes with the Advanced Hurricane WRF Model
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT Real-time forecasts of five landfalling Atlantic hurricanes during 2005 using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) (ARW) Model at grid spacings of 12 and 4 km revealed performance generally competitive with, and occasionally superior to, other operational ...
The Contribution of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gert (1999) toward the Weakening of a Midlatitude Cyclogenesis Event
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT Tropical Cyclone Gert (1999) experienced an extratropical transition while it merged with an extratropical cyclone upstream. The upstream extratropical cyclone had started to intensify before it merged with the transitioning tropical cyclone, and it continued intensifying ...
Observed Structure, Evolution, and Potential Intensity of Category 5 Hurricane Isabel (2003) from 12 to 14 September
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT Unprecedented observations of Hurricane Isabel (2003) at category 5 intensity were collected from 12 to 14 September. This study presents a detailed analysis of the inner-core structure, atmospheric boundary layer, sea surface temperature, and outflow layer of a superintense ...
Analysis of the Wind Field Evolution Associated with the Extratropical Transition of Bonnie (1998)
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT Extratropical transition brings about a number of environmentally induced structural changes within a transitioning tropical cyclone. Of particular interest among these changes is the acceleration of the wind field away from the cyclone's center of circulation along with the ...
Evaluating Rank Histograms Using Decompositions of the Chi-Square Test Statistic
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT Rank histograms are often plotted to evaluate the forecasts produced by an ensemble forecasting system-an ideal rank histogram is "flat" or uniform. It has been noted previously that the obvious test of "flatness," the well-known χ^sup 2^ goodness-of-fit test, spreads its ...
Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific: Their Frontal Evolution
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT Extratropical transition (ET) in the western North Pacific during 2001-02 is examined in terms of frontal evolution and its environment using a gridded global analysis dataset produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. According to the best-track data created by the Regional ...
A Linear Analysis of the NCAR CCSM Finite-Volume Dynamical Core
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT The NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) finite-volume atmospheric core uses a C-D-grid discretization to solve the equations of motion. A linear analysis of this discretization shows that it behaves as a D grid to leading order; it possesses the poor response of the D ...
Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System during the 2005/06 Cool Season
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT A simple binning technique developed to produce reliable probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from a multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system is evaluated during the cool season of 2005/06. The technique uses forecasts and observations of 3-h ...
An Objective Study of 500-hPa Moving Troughs in the Southern Hemisphere
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT The location and movement of 500-hPa troughs using an automated method are studied with data from a 24-yr period with the objective of determining the trough formation and dissipation regions in the Southern Hemisphere. To identify the 500-hPa mobile troughs, an objective method ...
Contributions of Mixed Physics versus Perturbed Initial/Lateral Boundary Conditions to Ensemble-Based Precipitation Forecast Skill
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT An experiment is described that is designed to examine the contributions of model, initial condition (IC), and lateral boundary condition (LBC) errors to the spread and skill of precipitation forecasts from two regional eight-member 15-km grid-spacing Weather Research and ...
Tests of an Adjoint Mesoscale Model with Explicit Moist Physics on the Cloud Scale
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT An adjoint modeling system based upon the Naval Research Laboratory's Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System's atmospheric component has been developed. The system includes the adjoint model of the explicit moist physics parameterization, which allows for gradients ...
Development and Testing of Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Part I: Greenland Ice Sheet Meteorology*
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT A polar-optimized version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) was developed to fill climate and synoptic needs of the polar science community and to achieve an improved regional performance. To ...
The Importance of the Boundary Layer Parameterization in the Prediction of Low-Level Convergence Lines
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT The importance of the boundary layer parameterization in the numerical prediction of low-level convergence lines over northeastern Australia is investigated. High-resolution simulations of convergence lines observed in one event during the 2002 Gulf Lines Experiment are carried ...
Deep Convection East of the Andes Cordillera: A Test Case Analysis of Airmass Origin
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT Warm and moist air masses, required to generate deep convection east of the Andes Cordillera, are generally the result of humidity transport by the so-called low-level jet (LLJ). In this paper, it is shown from detailed test cases that the eastern part of the continent and the ...
Classification of Cyclone Tracks over the Apennines and the Adriatic Sea
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT Cyclones that appear in the Adriatic Sea basin strongly influence the climate and weather conditions in the area. In particular, apart from the usually mild climate, cyclone activity in the Adriatic and the central Mediterranean Sea provide both the main hydrological forcing and ...
Assimilation of Simulated Polarimetric Radar Data for a Convective Storm Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Part I: Observation Operators for Reflectivity and Polarimetric Variables
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT A radar simulator for polarimetric radar variables, including reflectivities at horizontal and vertical polarizations, the differential reflectivity, and the specific differential phase, has been developed. This simulator serves as a test bed for developing and testing forward ...
Assimilation of Simulated Polarimetric Radar Data for a Convective Storm Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Part II: Impact of Polarimetric Data on Storm Analysis
Jun 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT A data assimilation system based on the ensemble square-root Kalman filter (EnSRF) is extended to include the additional capability of assimilating polarimetric radar variables. It is used to assess the impact of assimilating additional polarimetric observations on convective ...