Recently added articles from Weather and Forecasting:

Objective Forecasting of Foehn Winds for a Subgrid-Scale Alpine Valley

Apr 01, 2008; Drechsel, Susanne; Mayr, Georg J ... ABSTRACT Foehn winds often depend on topographical features of a scale that is not sufficiently resolved in numerical models. Consequently, a successful foehn forecast has crucially depended on the experience of bench forecasters. This study provides a method for an objective, ...

Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database

Apr 01, 2008; Krzysztofowicz, Roman; Evans, W Britt ... ABSTRACT The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution function, a density function, and a quantile function). The ...

Tornado Warnings, Lead Times, and Tornado Casualties: An Empirical Investigation

Apr 01, 2008; Simmons, Kevin M; Sutter, Daniel ... ABSTRACT Conventional wisdom holds that improved tornado warnings will reduce tornado casualties, because longer lead times on warnings provide extra opportunities to alert residents who can then take precautions. The relationship between warnings and casualties is examined using a ...

Impact of Satellite Winds on Marine Wind Simulations

Apr 01, 2008; Perrie, Will; Zhang, Weiqing; Bourassa, Mark; Shen, Hui; Vachon, Paris W ... ABSTRACT A variational data assimilation method is applied to remotely sensed wind data from Hurricanes Gustav (2002) and Isabel (2003) to produce enhanced marine wind estimates. The variational method utilizes constraints to ensure that an optimum combination of winds is determined, in ...

Forecast and Tracking the Evolution of Cloud Clusters (ForTraCC) Using Satellite Infrared Imagery: Methodology and Validation

Apr 01, 2008; Vila, Daniel Alejandro; Machado, Luiz Augusto Toledo; Laurent, Henri; Velasco, Inés ... ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to develop and validate an algorithm for tracking and forecasting radiative and morphological characteristics of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) through their entire life cycles using geostationary satellite thermal channel information (10.8 µm) ....

Experiments with a Simple Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus

Apr 01, 2008; Sampson, Charles R; Franklin, James L; Knaff, John A; DeMaria, Mark ... ABSTRACT Consensus forecasts (forecasts created by combining output from individual forecasts) have become an integral part of operational tropical cyclone track forecasting. Consensus aids, which generally have lower average errors than individual models, benefit from the skill and ...

Global Positioning System (GPS) Precipitable Water in Forecasting Lightning at Spaceport Canaveral

Apr 01, 2008; Kehrer, Kristen; Graf, Brian; Roeder, William P ... ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the use of precipitable water (PW) from the global positioning system (GPS) in lightning prediction. Additional independent verification of an earlier model is performed. This earlier model used binary logistic regression with the following four predictor ...

Applying Satellite-Estimated Storm Rotation Speed to Improve Typhoon Rainfall Potential Technique

Apr 01, 2008; Liu, Gin-Rong; Chao, Chun-Chieh; Ho, Czu-Yi ... ABSTRACT Heavy rainfall from typhoons or tropical cyclones often causes inland flooding and mudslides that threaten lives and property. In this study, Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) satellite data observed from 2000 to 2004 were used to calculate the rainfall rates of different ...