Recently added articles from Weather and Forecasting:
Verification Techniques and Simple Theoretical Forecast Models
Dec 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT This paper investigates the performance of some skill measures [e.g., linear error in probability space, (LEPS), relative operating characteristics score (ROCS), Brier scores, and proportion correct rates], commonly used in the validation and verification of seasonal climate ...
Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles
Dec 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT Key results of a comprehensive survey of U.S. National Weather Service operational forecast managers concerning the assessment and communication of forecast uncertainty are presented and discussed. The survey results revealed that forecasters are using uncertainty guidance to ...
A Study of the Error Covariance Matrix of Radar Rainfall Estimates in Stratiform Rain
Dec 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT The contribution of various physical sources of uncertainty affecting radar rainfall estimates at the ground is quantified toward deriving and understanding the error covariance matrix of these estimates. The focus here is on stratiform precipitation at a resolution of 15 km, ...
From Model-Based Parameterizations to Lookup Tables: An EOF Approach
Dec 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT The goal of this study is to transform the Harrington radiation parameterization into a transfer scheme or lookup table, which provides essentially the same output (heating rate profile and short- and longwave fluxes at the surface) at a fraction of the computational cost. The ...
Assessing the Capability of a Regional-Scale Weather Model to Simulate Extreme Precipitation Patterns and Flooding in Central Texas
Dec 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT A regional-scale weather model is used to determine the potential for flood forecasting based on model-predicted rainfall. Extreme precipitation and flooding events are a significant concern in central Texas, due to both the high occurrence and severity of flooding in the area ....
The Regime Dependence of Optimally Weighted Ensemble Model Consensus Forecasts of Surface Temperature
Dec 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT Previous methods for creating consensus forecasts weight individual ensemble members based upon their relative performance over the previous N days, implicitly making a short-term persistence assumption about the underlying flow regime. A postprocessing scheme in which model ...
Numerical Simulations of Wind Wave Growth under a Coastal Wind Jet through the Kanmon Strait
Dec 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT The development of a coastal wind jet flowing through the Kanmon Strait and the associated wind wave growth are investigated from a case study on 24-26 July 1999. This study presents a realistic example of fetch-limited wave growth under a developing wind jet outflowing from a ...
An Alternative Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Verification Technique
Dec 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not verify official or model forecasts if those forecasts call for a tropical cyclone to dissipate or if the real tropical cyclone dissipates. A new technique in which these forecasts are included in a contingency table with all other ...
A Case Study of Deterministic Forecast Verification: Tropical Cyclone Intensity
Dec 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT Deterministic predictions of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity from operational forecast systems traditionally have been verified with a summary accuracy measure (e.g., mean absolute error). Since the forecast system development process is coupled to the verification procedure, it ...
Elevated Convection and Castellanus: Ambiguities, Significance, and Questions
Dec 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT The term elevated convection is used to describe convection where the constituent air parcels originate from a layer above the planetary boundary layer. Because elevated convection can produce severe hail, damaging surface wind, and excessive rainfall in places well removed from ...
Emergency Management Decision Making during Severe Weather
Dec 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT Emergency managers make time-sensitive decisions in order to protect the public from threats including severe weather. Simulation and questionnaires were used to capture the decision-making process of emergency managers during severe weather events. These data were combined with ...
Probabilistic Forecasts of (Severe) Thunderstorms for the Purpose of Issuing a Weather Alarm in the Netherlands
Dec 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT The development and verification of a new model output statistics (MOS) system is described; this system is intended to help forecasters decide whether a weather alarm for severe thunderstorms, based on high total lightning intensity, should be issued in the Netherlands. The ...
Statistical Modeling of Downslope Windstorms in Boulder, Colorado
Dec 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT Downslope windstorms are of major concern to those living in and around Boulder, Colorado, often striking with little warning, occasionally bringing clear-air wind gusts of 35-50 m s^sup -1^ or higher, and producing widespread damage. Historically, numerical models used for ...
The Initiation and Evolution of Multiple Modes of Convection within a Meso-Alpha-Scale Region
Dec 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT On 30 March 2006, a convective episode occurred featuring isolated supercells, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) with parallel stratiform (PS) precipitation, and an MCS with leading stratiform (LS) precipitation. These three distinct convective modes occurred simultaneously ...
Short-Term Ice Accretion Forecasts for Electric Utilities Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and a Modified Precipitation-Type Algorithm
Oct 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used to provide 6-12-h forecasts of the necessary input parameters to a separate algorithm that determines the most likely precipitation type at each model grid point. In instances where freezing rain is indicated, an ice ...
The Optimal Bulk Wind Differential Depth and the Utility of the Upper-Tropospheric Storm-Relative Flow for Forecasting Supercells
Oct 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT An analysis of 4 yr of Rapid Update Cycle-2 (RUC-2) derived soundings in proximity to radar-observed supercells and nonsupercells is conducted in an effort to answer two questions: 1) over what depth is the fixed-layer bulk wind differential (BWD; the vector difference between ...
On the Predictability of Mesoscale Convective Systems: Two-Dimensional Simulations
Oct 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are a dominant climatological feature of the central United States and are responsible for a substantial fraction of warm season rainfall. Yet very little is known about the predictability of MCSs. To help alleviate this situation, a series of ...
The Temporal Evolution of Convective Indices in Storm-Producing Environments
Oct 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT Temporal changes in stability and shear associated with the development of thunderstorms are quantified using the enhanced temporal resolution of combined Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) thermodynamic profile retrievals and National Oceanic and Atmospheric ...
Vulnerability due to Nocturnal Tornadoes
Oct 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT This study investigates the human vulnerability caused by tornadoes that occurred between sunset and sunrise from 1880 to 2007. Nocturnal tornadoes are theorized to enhance vulnerability because they are difficult to spot and occur when the public tends to be asleep and in weak ...
Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts: A Survey of the U.S. Public
Oct 01, 2008; ... ABSTRACT Weather forecasts are inherently uncertain, and meteorologists have information about weather forecast uncertainty that is not readily available to most forecast users. Yet effectively communicating forecast uncertainty to nonmeteorologists remains challenging. Improving ...