Article: The Federal Reserve amendments of 1917: the beginning of a seasonal note issue policy.

SEVERAL STUDIES HAVE FOUND that the seasonal behavior of interest rates diminished after 1914, the year the Federal Reserve began operations (for example, Shiller 1980, Miron 1986, and Clark 1986). Mankiw, Miron, and Weil (1987), Miron (1988), and Barsky, Mankiw, Miron, and Weil (1988) suggest that the Federal Reserve was responsible for the change in interest rates, while Shiller (1980) and Clark (1986) suggest that the Federal Reserve had little or no effect. Because seasonal movements are believed to reflect real economic activity, the underlying issue in these studies is whether anticipated monetary policy can affect the real sector of the economy. By analyzing what ...

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