Uncertainty of outcome, player quality and attendance at National Provincial Championship rugby union matches: an evaluation in light of the competitions review.

This article investigates the determinants of attendance at New Zealand matches in the First Division of the National Provincial Championship (NPC) in 2000 to 2003. Emphasis is placed on testing the effects on demand of (within-season and match) uncertainty of outcome and player quality. A general-to-specific testing procedure is used to select a set of factors that have a statistically significant effect on attendance, including previous attendance, traditional rivalries, team success and Ranfurly Shield matches. A specific result of interest in light of the Competitions Review's proposal to exclude All Blacks from the NPC is the positive effect on attendance of the presence ...

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