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Article: Pocketbook predictions of presidential elections: pocketbook variables are almost always good indicators of electoral outcomes.
- Article from:
- Business Economics
- Article date:
- October 1, 2004
- Author:
CopyrightCOPYRIGHT 2004 The National Association for Business Economists. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan. All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)
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Political scientists have long known that "pocketbook issues" strongly affect the fortunes of presidents and other political leaders. Economists studying this relationship have established that certain economic factors--such as growth in income, inflation, and unemployment--directly affect the votes of the incumbent party in the presidential elections. Other institutional factors, such as the number of terms a party has occupied the oval office, also appear to affect voting patterns. We present a set of simple "rational voter" economic models, which includes economic and institutional factors largely known in advance of the election. Such models typically explain about 75 ...
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