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Weather forecasting for weather derivatives.
- Article from:
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Journal of the American Statistical Association
- Article date:
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March 1, 2005
- Author:
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;
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Copyright informationCOPYRIGHT 2005 American Statistical Association. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan. All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)
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We take a simple time series approach to modeling and forecasting daily average temperature in U.S. cities, and we inquire systematically as to whether it may prove useful from the vantage point of participants in the weather derivatives market. The answer is, perhaps surprisingly, yes. Time series modeling reveals conditional mean dynamics and, crucially, strong conditional variance dynamics in daily average temperature, and it reveals sharp differences between the distribution of temperature and the distribution of temperature surprises. As we argue, it also holds promise for producing the long-horizon predictive densities crucial for pricing weather derivatives, so that additional ...
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