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Article: The structural break in the equity premium.(stock returns)
- Article from:
- Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
- Article date:
- April 1, 2005
- Author:
CopyrightCOPYRIGHT 2005 American Statistical Association. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan. All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)
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This article uses Bayesian marginal likelihood analysis to compare univariate models of the stock return behavior and test for structural breaks in the equity premium. The analysis favors a model that relates the equity premium to Markov-switching changes in the level of market volatility and accommodates volatility feedback. For this model, there is evidence of a one-time structural break in the equity premium in the 1940s, with no evidence of additional breaks in the postwar period. The break in the 1940s corresponds to a permanent reduction in the general level of stock market volatility. Meanwhile, there appears to be no change in the underlying risk preferences ...