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Article: The National Institute density forecasts of inflation.
- Article from:
- National Institute Economic Review
- Article date:
- July 1, 2005
- Author:
CopyrightCOPYRIGHT 2005 National Institute of Economic and Social Research. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan. All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)
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This paper has three aims. First, we summarise and thereby make readily available the historical time-series of quarterly density forecasts of year ahead RPIX (RPI excluding mortgage payments) inflation made by the National Institute for the period 1994Q1-2004Q4. Previous work has focused on those forecasts made in Q4 only. Secondly, we evaluate the quality of these density forecasts. Thirdly, with the benefit of hindsight we draw lessons for the future production and use of density forecasts.
Keywords: density forecasts; evaluating forecasts; inflation forecasting JEL classification: C53; E37
I. Introduction
Increased attention is now given to ...