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A hierarchical framework for modeling and forecasting web server workload.
- Article from:
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Journal of the American Statistical Association
- Article date:
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September 1, 2005
- Author:
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Copyright informationCOPYRIGHT 2005 American Statistical Association. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan. All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)
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Proactive management of web server farms requires accurate prediction of workload. An exemplary measure of workload is the amount of service requests per unit time. As a time series, the workload exhibits not only short-term random fluctuations, but also prominent periodic (daily) patterns that evolve randomly from one period to another. A hierarchical framework with multiple time scales is proposed to model such time series. This framework leads to an adaptive procedure that provides both long-term (in days) and short-term (in minutes) predictions with simultaneous confidence bands that accommodate not only serial correlation, but also heavy tailedness, heteroscedasticity, and ...
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