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The generalized dynamic factor model: one-sided estimation and forecasting.
- Article from:
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Journal of the American Statistical Association
- Article date:
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September 1, 2005
- Author:
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Copyright informationCOPYRIGHT 2005 American Statistical Association. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan. All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)
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This article proposes a new forecasting method that makes use of information from a large panel of time series. Like earlier methods, our method is based on a dynamic factor model. We argue that our method improves on a standard principal component predictor in that it fully exploits all the dynamic covariance structure of the panel and also weights the variables according to their estimated signal-to-noise ratio. We provide asymptotic results for our optimal forecast estimator and show that in finite samples, our forecast outperforms the standard principal components predictor.
KEY WORDS: Dynamic factor model; Forecasting; Large cross-section; Panel data; Principal components; Time ...
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