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Chapter 1: global prospects and policy issues.

World output increased briskly in the first half of 2006, and global growth is projected at 5.1 percent for the year as a whole before moderating to 4.9 percent in 2007 (Figure 1.1 and Table 1.1). Nevertheless, inflationary concerns, tighter conditions in financial markets, and further jumps in oil prices to new highs have highlighted downside risks as the global economy enters the fourth year of this current expansion. Other notable sources of uncertainty include the threat of an abrupt slowdown in the U.S. housing market; lingering doubts about prospects for growth in the other advanced economies; and questions about the resilience of emerging market countries in a more ...

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