Objective: Previous research suggests that abstinence from alcohol during the first year posttreatment for alcohol-use disorders (AUDs) is an important, independent predictor of longer-term alcohol consumption and related functioning. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that abstinence during the first year posttreatment initiation predicts alcohol use at Months 37-39. A second aim of this study was to explore the relationship between "moderate" drinking in the first year and drinking at Months 37-39. Method: Secondary data analyses were conducted on the outpatient Project MATCH (Matching Alcoholism Treatments to Client Heterogeneity) sample (N = 952 at baseline and 802 ...