Article: Mean-variance versus target-return investment strategies.

Studies using mean-variance models have shown that an excessive risk premium is earned by stocks over bonds. This paper compares the composition and performance of mean-variance portfolios with portfolios of investors who have target returns as an objective. Investors with target returns are assumed to maximize the expected return of their portfolios subject to the constraint that the chance of earning a return below a specified target is limited to a set probability. Using historical data on stocks and bonds, this paper finds that such investors should have allocated an overwhelming percent of their portfolios to bonds; for these investors, the risk premium earned on ...

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