Article: Labour's banana skin: the Monklands by-election. (John Smith's constituency in Scotland)

TO THE Labour Party, the loss of their leader is tragedy enough. Worse still would be to lose the by-election now expected on June 30th in John Smith's Monklands East constituency in Scotland.

Surely Mr Smith's majority of 15,712 votes at the last election, and his 61% share of the vote compared with the mere 18% of his nearest rival, makes his seat safe for Labour? No, it does not. The by-election will not be an easy win over the Tories, but a bitter battle against the Scottish National Party. Labour has a poor by- election record against the SNP. In the 1987-92 parliament, in four Scottish by-elections in safe Labour seats, Labour's vote fell 14.9 percentage points ...

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