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3 Investigating the performance of alternative default-risk models: option-based versus accounting-based approaches.

Abstract:

In this paper we evaluate the performance of three alternate default-risk models, seeking to find that measure which performs best, using a comprehensive sample drawn from the Australian equities market. The first two models are option-based models and are derived from Merton's (1974) insight that equity can be viewed as a call option on a firm's assets. In the first model, equity is modelled as a standard call option. In the second model, equity is modelled as a path-dependent barrier option. The third model is created using accounting ratios and is similar to Altman's (1968) Z-Score. To assess which of the models is superior, we consider variations of each ...

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