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8 Recent empirical evidence.(Portfolio Performance Evaluation)

8.1 Evidence on Conditional Alphas

Ferson and Schadt (1996) find evidence that funds' risk exposures change significantly in response to variables that represent public information on the economy, such as the levels of interest rates and dividend yields. Using conditional models Ferson and Schadt (1996) and Kryzanowski et al. (1997) find that the distribution of mutual fund alphas is shifted to the right, relative to the unconditional alphas, and is centered near zero. Thus, conditional models tend to paint a more optimistic picture of mutual fund performance than unconditional models. This general pattern is confirmed in subsequent studies by Zheng (1999), Ferson and Qian ...

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