Time-Space Distribution of Long-Range Atmospheric Predictability

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences;  February 1, 2004 ;     700+ words ......ascertain the role of atmospheric initial conditions for such predictability as a function...atmosphere was remarkably sensitive to initial conditions on the week 3-6 forecast range. Particularly...mostly concerned with the effect of initial conditions on predictability, and ...

initial conditions

A Dictionary of Economics;      71 words ...initial conditions The position from which an economic...deterministic basis, knowledge of the initial conditions is both necessary and sufficient...current state owes less and less to initial conditions as time goes on, and long-term...

Likelihood and Bayesian prediction of chaotic systems. (Special Section: A...

Journal of the American Statistical Association;  December 1, 1991 ;     700+ words ......nonlinearity of f is a strong dependence on initial conditions and parameter specifications in the...in the presence of uncertainty in initial conditions. Consider the remarkable comments...happen that slight differences in the initial conditions produce very great differences in...

Finding riddles of physical uncertainty. (predicting outcome in simple...

Science News;  September 18, 1993 ;     621 words ......error in reproducing an experiment's initial conditions can lead to a vastly different outcome...show the sensitive dependence on initial conditions that characterizes chaotic systems...predictable. A particular set of initial conditions leads to a certain type of outcome...

Source of seasonality and scale dependence of predictability in a coupled...

Monthly Weather Review;  May 1, 1997 ;     700+ words ......of the model to generate analyzed initial conditions. It is shown that decrease of predictability...many, but not all, spring analyzed initial conditions. With winter analyzed initial conditions, errors always grow more slowly...

IMPACT OF INITIAL CONDITIONS AND REFORM POLICIES ON AGRICULTURAL...

American Journal of Agricultural Economics;  November 15, 2000 ;     700+ words ......forthcoming, 2000; Pingali and Xuan). Initial conditions importantly affected the transition...effects. Understanding the impact of initial conditions is necessary to identify correctly...Rozelle), while others argued that the initial conditions of China were so different that no...

Long-Range Predictability in the Tropics. Part I: Monthly Averages

Journal of Climate;  March 1, 2005 ;     700+ words ......experiments with different combinations of initial conditions and prescribed ocean boundary conditions...forecast skill. It is shown that initial conditions dominate a tropical forecast during...The relatively long sensitivity to initial conditions is related to a complex ...

conditions

A Dictionary of Economics;      15 words ...conditions See initial conditions , necessary and sufficient conditions , and working conditions .

Researchers obligated to follow the evidence

The Pantagraph Bloomington, IL;  April 27, 2005 ;     337 words ......follow where the evidence leads once initial conditions are set. If initial conditions do not allow for intelligent design...Is this not the same as setting the initial conditions such that the possibility of roundness...

Sensitivity of forecast errors to initial conditions with a quasi-inverse...

Monthly Weather Review;  October 1, 1997 ;     700+ words ......sensitivity of forecast errors to initial conditions for the National Centers for Environmental...sensitivity of forecast errors to initial conditions. The authors then calculate the perturbation...from the original analysis, the new initial conditions lead to an almost perfect 1-day ...

An application of potential vorticity inversion to improving the numerical...

Monthly Weather Review;  February 1, 1998 ;     700+ words ......is proposed to improve the model initial conditions, based on available surface temperature...are obtained and added to the model initial conditions to improve the representation of...prediction, initialized with the modified initial conditions, exhibits significant improvements...

Seasonal Climate Predictability in a Coupled OAGCM Using a Different...

Journal of Climate;  November 1, 2005 ;     700+ words ......accounts for the uncertainties of both initial conditions and model physics. Because of the...good coupled model and realistic initial conditions with a proper initialization procedure...prediction skill even with perfect initial conditions. Since the ENSO predictability mainly...

Chemical chaos. (unpredictable reactions)

Chemistry and Industry;  March 4, 1991 ;     700+ words ......that displays extreme sensitivity to initial conditions. The deterministic aspect is essential...same state. Finally, sensitivity to initial conditions is perhaps the most interesting and...time that tiny perturbation in the initial conditions will cause the real system to evolve...

Ocean data assimilation, initialization, and predictions of ENSO with a...

Monthly Weather Review;  June 1, 1999 ;     700+ words ......subsurface ocean measurements in the initial conditions is described. Anomaly initial conditions are used in order to reduce initial...empirical statistical corrections. Initial conditions for the ocean were obtained from...

Using ensembles for short-range forecasting

Monthly Weather Review;  April 1, 1999 ;     700+ words ......that at 36 and 48 h the spread from initial conditions created using the breeding of growing...technique is larger than the spread from initial conditions created using different analyses...small uncertainties in the model initial conditions can lead to large differences in...