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Article: Oil prices and growth.
- Article from:
- National Institute Economic Review
- Article date:
- April 1, 2008
- Author:
CopyrightCOPYRIGHT 2008 National Institute of Economic and Social Research. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan. All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)
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Over the past fifteen months oil prices have steadily risen from around $60 a barrel to over $100, as we can see from Figure 1. The projections in our forecast are based on information from futures markets and on projections by the US Energy Information Administration, and as prices have risen there has been increasing evidence that they are considered to be overshooting a sustainable position, as can be seen from our projections for oil prices. Oil prices are expected to fall back to $90 a barrel by the end of 2009. Hence the current oil price shock can be seen as a combination of a temporary increase and a permanent increase in oil prices. The impact of increases in oil ...