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Article: Testing the Bradley effect: are opinion polls making accurate predictions about Barack Obama?(2008)
- Article from:
- National Review
- Article date:
- October 20, 2008
- Author:
CopyrightCOPYRIGHT 2008 National Review, Inc. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan. All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)
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IN 1982, California gubernatorial candidate Tom Bradley went into Election Day leading in the polls. He lost in a squeaker. In 1989, New York City mayoral candidate David Dinkins had as much as an 18-point lead in the polls over his Republican opponent, Rudy Giuliani. On Election Day, he eked out a narrow victory. That same year, Virginia gubernatorial candidate Douglas Wilder enjoyed as much as a 15-point lead, only to win by a few thousand votes out of nearly 2 million cast.
All three candidates were black. These peculiar results have induced political observers to ask whether there is a systematic "Bradley Effect"--i.e., whether black candidates can expect to ...