Article: Are the recent trends in liver cirrhosis mortality affected by the changes in alcohol consumption? Analysis of latency period in European countries.

ABSTRACT. Objective. A striking reduction of alcohol-related problems, such as liver cirrhosis death rates, has been observed in many western countries in recent years. It might be expected that these declines are accompanied by a lagged reduction in per capita alcohol consumption, since many years of intake are required for cirrhosis of the liver to develop (lag theory). The main aim of this study is to verify the validity of the lag theory, taking as target populations those resident in European countries. Method. Changes in liver cirrhosis death rates in 22 European countries between 1970 and 1989 were regressed onto changes in per capita alcohol consumption (1961-89) ...

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