Article: The Idea of Decline in Western History.

An evasive subject, history is. It's only predictable in hindsight. But will we ever stop trying to foresee the course of it? Hardly.

There is something profoundly comforting in the thought that history always moves in a certain direction, even if it's a bad one. The belief in progress, technological and otherwise, holds an obvious attraction. But why would we willingly believe and even argue vigorously that civilization as we know it is about to end? Shouldn't we rather give thanks to God for what we have and laugh the doomsayers out of business?

But no -- doom is as popular as ever. The imminence of the year 2000 doesn't help. Watch, say, for the ...

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