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Article: Earthquakes Ground-breaking.(use of statistical approaches in earthquake prediction)(Brief Article)
- Article from:
- The Economist (US)
- Article date:
- January 30, 1999
CopyrightCOPYRIGHT 1999 Economist Newspaper Ltd. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan. All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)
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ANAHEIM
THE earthquake which devastated central Colombia on January 25th took its thousands of victims by surprise. No wonder, since predicting earth tremors is far from an exact science. After decades of effort, most would-be earthquake forecasters have concluded that it will never be possible to make specific predictions of the precise time, location and intensity of a seismic shake-up.
Instead, they are pursuing statistical approaches, such as estimating the chances that an earthquake of a particular size will strike a given region within a certain period. So a promising new ``stress-transfer'' theory, which sets out to explain how an earthquake in ...
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