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Article: Facing the Consequences.
- Article from:
- Business Economics
- Article date:
- January 1, 2000
- Author:
CopyrightCOPYRIGHT 2000 The National Association for Business Economists. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan. All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)
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RISK IS MORE ABOUT HOW WE MAKE BUSINESS DECISIONS AND OUR BASIC VISIONS OF THE WORLD THAN IT IS ABOUT MATH.
Although the achievements over the past three hundred and fifty years in the measurement of risk are extraordinary intellectual leaps, these mathematical innovations are merely instruments. Risk is about how we make decisions and only incidentally about the math we employ to reach those decisions. The consequences of our decisions must always dominate the probabilities. Leibniz taught us that no model has an [R.sup.2] of 1.00--so beware of those who tell us we know more about the long run than the short run. And finally, the way we make decisions reflects ...
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