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Article: A Dynamic Transmission Model for Predicting Trends in Helicobacter pylori and Associated Diseases in the United States.(Statistical Data Included)
- Article from:
- Emerging Infectious Diseases
- Article date:
- May 1, 2000
- Author:
CopyrightCOPYRIGHT 2000 U.S. National Center for Infectious Diseases. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan. All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)
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To assess the benefits of intervention programs against Helicobacter pylori infection, we estimated the baseline curves of its incidence and prevalence. We developed a mathematical (compartmental) model of the intrinsic dynamics of H. pylori, which represents the natural history of infection and disease progression. Our model divided the population according to age, infection status, and clinical state. Case-patients were followed from birth to death. A proportion of the population acquired H. pylori infection and became ill with gastritis, duodenal ulcer, chronic atrophic gastritis, or gastric cancer. We simulated the change in transmissibility consistent with the ...