|
|
Article: Multivariate time series projections of parameterized age-specific fertility rates.
- Article from:
- Journal of the American Statistical Association
- Article date:
- September 1, 1989
- Author:
CopyrightCOPYRIGHT 1989 American Statistical Association. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan. All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)
|
Multivariate Time Series Projections of Parameterized Age-Specific Fertility Rates
Projection of individual age-specific fertility rates is a forecasting problem of high dimension.
We solve this dimensionality problem by using parametric curves to approximate the annual
age-specific rates and a multivariate time series model to forecast the curve parameters. These
yield forecasts of future fertility curves, which are then used to compute age-specific fertility
rate forecasts. This reduces the dimensionality of the forecasting problem and also guarantees
that long-run projections of age-specific fertility rates will ...