Article: Multivariate time series projections of parameterized age-specific fertility rates.

Multivariate Time Series Projections of Parameterized Age-Specific Fertility Rates

Projection of individual age-specific fertility rates is a forecasting problem of high dimension.

We solve this dimensionality problem by using parametric curves to approximate the annual

age-specific rates and a multivariate time series model to forecast the curve parameters. These

yield forecasts of future fertility curves, which are then used to compute age-specific fertility

rate forecasts. This reduces the dimensionality of the forecasting problem and also guarantees

that long-run projections of age-specific fertility rates will ...

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