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Article: Recent Developments in U.S. Energy Markets: A Background Note.(analysis of causes of high oil prices, International Monetary Fund)(Statistical Data Included)
- Article from:
- New England Economic Review
- Article date:
- September 1, 2000
- Author:
CopyrightCOPYRIGHT 2000 Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan. All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)
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In its October 1999 World Economic Outlook, the IMF assumed that oil prices would be $18 per barrel in 2000. In reality, oil prices will probably average closer to $30 than to $20 a barrel this year. As oil prices have continued to rise above expectation, analysts have scrambled to find explanations. This note outlines some of the developments that have led to persistently high oil prices over the past two years. It compares the current situation with that prevailing at the time of previous oil shocks, and outlines some of the difficulties entailed in measuring the impact of sharp oil price increases on U.S. inflation and output.
I. The ...