Article: Bay of Pigs fiasco proves U.S.-led invasion of Iraq could be disaster.(Knight Ridder Newspapers)

WASHINGTON _ U.S. war planners and Iraqi exiles have high hopes that an invasion of Iraq would trigger a revolt against Saddam Hussein, but history suggests that betting on such optimistic assumptions can be risky.

In 1961, the Central Intelligence Agency concluded that as many as 30,000 dissident Cubans would rise up against Fidel Castro to support the U.S.-led invasion at the Bay of Pigs. It didn't happen, and the invasion ended in disaster.

Nearly all of the 1,500 invaders were killed or captured within three days. Most were later released after the United States paid Castro a $53 million ransom. And President John F. Kennedy learned a bitter lesson ...

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