Article: R.I.P. Kremlinology; With Glasnost, Who Needs to Read Tea Leaves?

NOT LEAST among Mikhail Gorbachev's accomplishments is that he has killed Kremlinology, the strange science that sought to understand Soviet policy by piecing together a jigsaw of facts and hints about the Soviet leadership. Kremlinology, which thrived in a vacuum of real information, became increasingly irrelevant with the shift to greater openness.

In its classic form, Kremlinology had two essential ingredients: It treated the top Soviet leadership as a Byzantine court in which policy making was confined to a small and identifiable number of key party members and bureaucrats; and it tried to circumvent the secrecy surrounding the Soviet leadership by unearthing every scrap of ...

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