Article: An Operational Dynamical Downscaling Prediction System for Nordeste Brazil and the 2002-04 Real-Time Forecast Evaluation

ABSTRACT

The International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) and Ceará Foundation for Meteorology and Water Resources (FUNCEME) in Brazil have developed a dynamical downscaling prediction system for Northeast Brazil (the Nordeste) and have been issuing seasonal rainfall forecasts since December 2001. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first operational climate dynamical downscaling prediction system. The ECHAM4.5 AGCM and the NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM) are the core of this prediction system. This is a two-tiered prediction system. SST forecasts are produced first, which then serve as the lower boundary condition forcing for the ECHAM4.5 AGCM-NCEP RSM nested ...

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