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Article: 2007: Reading the tea leaves

Article from:
Bank News
Article date:
December 1, 2006
Author:
Copyright

Reading the tea leaves (also known as tasseography) is a tool psychics use to predict the future based on the shape of the tea leaves left at the bottom of a cup. Oui'ja boards and crystal balls are also still popular. What do the tea leaves suggest for the economy and interest rates for 2007? Only a psychic would know. My best guess, using more traditional methods, is the following:

The Fed

I think the Fed is dearly on hold until the economic data force it to move. My guess is that the next move will be down, and that it will occur at the March or May FOMC meeting. In some ways, the presence of a three-time dissenter (Gov. Jeff Lacker) on the committee has helped Chairman Bernanke buy ...

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