ABSTRACT

Consensus forecasts (forecasts created by combining output from individual forecasts) have become an integral part of operational tropical cyclone track forecasting. Consensus aids, which generally have lower average errors than individual models, benefit from the skill and independence of the consensus members, both of which are present in track forecasting, but are limited in intensity forecasting. This study conducts experiments with intensity forecast aids on 4 yr of data (2003-06). First, the skill of the models is assessed; then simple consensus computations are constructed for the Atlantic, eastern North Pacific, and western North Pacific basins. A simple (i.e., equally ...

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