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HAVE WE PUT AN END TO SOCIAL PROMOTION? CHANGES IN SCHOOL PROGRESS AMONG CHILDREN AGED 6 TO 17 FROM 1972 TO 2005*

We examine trends over time in the proportion of children below the modal grade for their age (BMG), a proxy for grade retention, and in the effects of its demographic and socioeconomic correlates. We estimate a logistic regression model with partial constraints predicting BMG using the annual October school enrollment supplements of the Current Population Survey. This model identifies systematic variation in the effects of social background across age and time from 1972 to 2005. While the effects of socioeconomic background variables on progress through school have become increasingly powerful as children grow older, that typical pattern has been attenuated across the past three decades by ...

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