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Predictability Associated with the Downstream Impacts of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Methodology and a Case Study of Typhoon Nabi (2005)
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Monthly Weather Review
- Article date:
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September 1, 2008
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Copyright informationCopyright American Meteorological Society Sep 2008. Provided by ProQuest LLC. (Hide copyright information)
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ABSTRACT
Measures of the variability among ensemble members from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction ensemble prediction system are examined with respect to forecasts of the extratropical transition (ET) of Typhoon Nabi over the western North Pacific during September 2005. In this study, variability among ensemble members is used as a proxy for predictability. The time-longitude distribution of standard deviations among 500-hPa height fields from the ensemble members is found to increase across the North Pacific following the completion of the extratropical transition. Furthermore, the increase in ensemble standard deviation is organized such that an increase is associated ...
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