Predictability Associated with the Downstream Impacts of the Extratropical...

Monthly Weather Review;  September 1, 2008 ;     700+ words ......variability among ensemble members from the National...Environmental Prediction ensemble prediction system are examined...variability among ensemble members is used as a proxy...the operational ensemble prediction system (EPS) at...deviation among ensemble ...

The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a model of the Gulf...

Journal of Physical Oceanography;  April 1, 1999 ;     700+ words ......potential of ensemble prediction for estimating...examined. Using ensemble prediction methods the...conditions of the ensemble members. The perturbations...perturbing ensemble members and yield...10-10^sup 2^. Ensemble prediction is a practical...1988). In ...

Linear regime duration: Is 24 hours a long time in synoptic weather...

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences;  November 15, 2001 ;     700+ words ......operational ensemble weather predictions...selection of ensemble members is a subject...assumption that the ensemble members represent...pairs of ensemble members, is introduced...and American ensemble prediction systems are...operational ensemble ...

Impact of ensemble size on ensemble prediction

Monthly Weather Review;  September 1, 1998 ;     700+ words ...ABSTRACT The impact of ensemble size on the performance...Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system (EPS) is analyzed...16, and 32 perturbed ensemble members are compared for a period...integration with a medium-range ensemble prediction (Tracton and Kalnay ...

Independent Estimations of the Asymptotic Variability in an Ensemble...

Monthly Weather Review;  November 1, 2008 ;     700+ words ......property within an ensemble forecast system...within the ECMWF ensemble prediction system has been...Lorenz 1969). Ensemble prediction systems (EPS...properties of an ensemble prediction system are important...parameterizations in the ensemble system is to...the ...

Spatial and interannual variability of the reliability of ensemble-based...

Monthly Weather Review;  August 1, 2003 ;     700+ words ......reliability of ECMWF ensemble forecasts has been...implemented in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). Local...The validation of Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) has...forecasts based on ensemble prediction (Tracton and Kalnay...up an operational ensemble ...

The big time beckons Second City players

Chicago Sun-Times;  July 8, 1998 ;     351 words ......Live" looks for new talent. Current Second City mainstage ensemble members Horacio Sanz, Rachel Dratch and Stephnie Weir are being...only other folks auditioning are two Second City Toronto ensemble members and one person from the Groundlings, the famed Los Angeles...

A Probabilistic Analysis of the Dynamics and Predictability of Tropical...

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences;  November 1, 2008 ;     700+ words ......advantage of discrepancies between ensemble members, statistical correlation is used to elucidate why some ensemble members strengthen the disturbance into...result in quicker genesis in some ensemble members than others, they are also the...

Performance of the ECMWF and the BoM Ensemble Prediction Systems in the...

Monthly Weather Review;  October 1, 2004 ;     700+ words ...ABSTRACT The performance of two ensemble prediction systems, that of the European Centre...integrations. Since December 1992, global ensemble prediction systems have been part of the operational...and Kalnay 1993). Since 1998, an ensemble prediction system has been operational also...

Photo by Brett Thomas; "Carousel," whose [Derived headline]

The Intelligencer;  July 6, 2007 ;     22 words ...Photo by Brett Thomas "Carousel," whose ensemble members perform a dance here, runs at the Walnut Street Theatre in Philadelphia through July 15.

Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction and spread and skill...

Monthly Weather Review;  January 1, 1997 ;     700+ words ......ECMWF), the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS...methodology for ensemble prediction. Then, the...skill of ensemble prediction is estimated...perturbed ensemble members have anomaly...contrast, ensemble prediction has the capability...is because ...

Estimation of Predictability with a Newly Derived Index to Quantify...

Monthly Weather Review;  July 1, 2007 ;     700+ words ......that quantifies similarity among ensemble members in a weather forecast. Previous approaches...characterizes the similarity (across ensemble members) of both aspects together with a simple...similarity between time series of ensemble members (hereafter, EMs). Taylor (1920) first...

A Comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction...

Monthly Weather Review;  May 1, 2005 ;     700+ words ......following: * the performance of ensemble prediction systems strongly depends on the...generate the forecasts; * a successful ensemble prediction system should simulate the effect...forecasting techniques. 1. The need for ensemble prediction The weather is a chaotic system...

HUB STUDENTS EARN MEDALS IN MUSIC

Post-Tribune (IN);  February 28, 1991 ;     222 words ......Darrell Cross and Kyle Fouch and ensemble members Elise Hardy, Carrie McDonald, Christie...Rajchel, Brian Hays and Chris Wood and ensemble members Sarah Spencer and Eliza Lazar. Receiving...King, Chris Wood and Kyle Fouch and ensemble members Jennifer Colosi, Heather Thompson...

Notes and correspondence: Consensus of dynamical tropical cyclone track...

Monthly Weather Review;  December 1, 2000 ;     700+ words ......components as in an ensemble prediction system. This...qualities of an ensemble prediction system. However...forecasts and an ensemble prediction system are...positions, an ensemble prediction system generally...objective of an ensemble prediction system ...