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Downscaling of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts for Cases of Severe Weather: Ensemble Statistics and Cluster Analysis

ABSTRACT

Dynamical downscaling has been applied to global ensemble forecasts to assess its impact for four cases of severe weather (precipitation and wind) over various parts of Croatia. It was performed with the Croatian 12.2-km version of the Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement International (ALADIN) limited-area model, nested in the ECMWF T^sub L^255 (approximately 80 km) global ensemble prediction system (EPS). The 3-hourly EPS output was used to force the ALADIN model over the central European/northern Mediterranean domain.

Results indicate that the identical clustering algorithm may yield differing results when applied to either global or to downscaled ensembles. It is ...

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