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Comparison of a 51-Member Low-Resolution (T^sub L^399L62) Ensemble with a 6-Member High-Resolution (T^sub L^799L91) Lagged-Forecast Ensemble
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Monthly Weather Review
- Article date:
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September 1, 2008
- Author:
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Copyright informationCopyright American Meteorological Society Sep 2008. Provided by ProQuest LLC. (Hide copyright information)
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ABSTRACT
The 51-member T^sub L^399L62 ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS51) is compared with a lagged ensemble system based on the six most recent ECMWF T^sub L^799L91 forecasts (LAG6). The EPS51 and LAG6 systems are compared to two 6-member ensembles with a "weighted" ensemble-mean: EPS6wEM and LAG6wEM. EPS6wEM includes six members of EPS51 and has the ensemble mean constructed giving optimal weights to its members, while LAG6wEM includes the LAG6 six members and has the ensemble mean constructed giving optimal weights to its members. In these weighted ensembles, the optimal weights are based on 50-day forecast error statistics of each individual member (in EPS51 and LAG6 the ensemble ...
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