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A New Verification Method to Ensure Consistent Ensemble Forecasts through Calibrated Precipitation Downscaling Models

ABSTRACT

A new verification method is proposed to test the consistency of ensemble high-resolution precipitation fields forecasted by calibrated downscaling models. The method is based on a generalization of the verification rank histogram and tests the exceedance probability of a fixed pr ecipitation threshold calculated from the observed or ensemble fields. A graphical tool that accounts for random assignments of the rank is proposed to provide guidance in histogram interpretation and to avoid a possible misunderstanding of model deficiencies. The verification method is applied on three numerical experiments carried out in controlled conditions using the space-time rainfall (STRAIN) ...

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