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Synoptic Control of Mesoscale Precipitating Systems in the Pacific Northwest

ABSTRACT

This research examines whether an adequate representation of flow features on the synoptic scale allows for the skillful inference of mesoscale precipitating systems. The focus is on the specific problem of land-falling systems on the west coast of the United States for a variety of synoptic types that lead to significant rainfall. The methodology emphasizes rigorous hypothesis testing within a controlled hindcast setting to quantify the significance of the results. The role of lateral boundary conditions is explicitly accounted for by the study.

The hypotheses that (a) uncertainty in the large-scale analysis and (b) upstream buffer size have no impact on the skill of precipitation ...

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