Article: 6 of 9 Presidential Election Forecasts Predict Obama Will Win 2008 Popular Vote

The American Political Science Association issued the following news release:

Most of nine forecast models developed by political scientists predict a victory for Senator Barack Obama over Senator John McCain in the two-party contest for the popular vote in the 2008 presidential election. Obama is predicted to win an average of 52% of the vote with an 80% probability that he will gain more than half the total two-party popular vote.

Six out of the nine presidential election forecasts predict an Obama victory with popular vote totals ranging from 50.1% to 58.2%, while two predict a race too close to call and one predicts a narrow McCain victory. All of the predictions appear in an ...

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