|
|
Article: Decadal Predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a Coupled GCM: Forecast Skill and Optimal Perturbations Using Linear Inverse Modeling
- Article from:
- Journal of Climate
- Article date:
- July 15, 2009
- Author:
CopyrightCopyright American Meteorological Society Jul 15, 2009. Provided by ProQuest LLC. (Hide copyright information)
|
ABSTRACT
The decadal predictability of three-dimensional Atlantic Ocean anomalies is examined in a coupled global climate model [the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3)] using a linear inverse modeling (LIM) approach. It is found that the evolution of temperature and salinity in the Atlantic, and the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), can be effectively described by a linear dynamical system forced by white noise. The forecasts produced using this linear model are more skillful than other reference forecasts for several decades. Furthermore, significant nonnormal amplification is found under several different norms. The regions from ...