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Article: How predictable is El Nino?
- Article from:
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
- Article date:
- July 1, 2003
- Author:
CopyrightCopyright American Meteorological Society Jul 2003. Provided by ProQuest LLC. (Hide copyright information)
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The interplay between the Southern Oscillation and atmospheric noise is the likely reason why each El Nino is distinct, and so difficult to predict.
A recent analysis of 12 statistical and dynamical models used for El Nino predictions finds that at the long (1-2 yr) and even medium (6-11 months) ranges there were "no models that provided useful and skillful forecasts for the entirety of the 1997/98 El Nino" (Landsea and Knaff 2000). Most of the models were wrong in predicting the timing of the onset and/or demise of El Nino, and unable to predict the full duration and even one-half of the actual amplitude of the event. An earlier study by Barnston et al. (1999) reached similarly ...