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Article: Westerly wind events and the 1997/98 El Nino event in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system: A case study
- Article from:
- Journal of Climate
- Article date:
- October 1, 2003
- Author:
CopyrightCopyright American Meteorological Society Oct 1, 2003. Provided by ProQuest LLC. (Hide copyright information)
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ABSTRACT
The 1997/98 El Nino was one of the strongest on record. Its onset was predicted by several numerical models, though none fully captured its intensity. This was the case for the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system that underestimated the intensification during the June-July 1997 period by more than 1 K. Several strong westerly wind events developed during the onset of the 1997/98 El Nino suggesting that westerly wind events played a key role in the intensification of this El Nino. The present paper quantifies the impact of westerly wind events on the 1997/98 El Nino in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system, through a series of experiments in which various modifications are made to ...
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