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Article: Impact of large-scale circulation on tropical storm frequency, intensity, and location, simulated by an ensemble of GCM integrations
- Article from:
- Journal of Climate
- Article date:
- November 1, 1999
- Author:
CopyrightCopyright American Meteorological Society Nov 1999. Provided by ProQuest LLC. (Hide copyright information)
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ABSTRACT
Tropical storms simulated by a nine-member ensemble of GCM integrations forced by observed SSTs have been tracked by an objective procedure for the period 1980-88. Statistics on tropical storm frequency, intensity, and first location have been produced. Statistical tools such as the chi-square and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test indicate that there is significant potential predictability of interannual variability of simulated tropical storm frequency, intensity, and first location over most of the ocean basins. The only common point between the nine members of the ensemble is the SST forcing. This implies that SSTs play a fundamental role in model tropical storm frequency, intensity, ...