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ANALYZING MESOSCALE FORECAST SENSITIVITY USING VERY LARGE ENSEMBLES
- Article from:
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Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
- Article date:
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January 1, 2004
- Author:
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;
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Copyright informationCopyright American Meteorological Society Jan 2004. Provided by ProQuest LLC. (Hide copyright information)
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With the help of parallel processing resources, we have been able to perform an initial condition sensitivity analysis of a mesoscale forecast by using an ensemble of over 2000 members. Inherent chaos in weather forecasts and the large number of degrees of freedom in the model make such analyses difficult. A small perturbation of any of the initial variables at any of the millions of gridpoints can lead to significant changes in the forecast. A complete sensitivity analysis would take many millions of model runs to test every possible perturbation, and this is not currently tenable.
However, computing systems consisting of thousands of powerful processors are now available. It is now ...
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