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Effect of Oceanic Advection on the Potential Predictability of Sea Surface Temperature
- Article from:
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Journal of Climate
- Article date:
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September 15, 2004
- Author:
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;
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Copyright informationCopyright American Meteorological Society Sep 15, 2004. Provided by ProQuest LLC. (Hide copyright information)
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ABSTRACT
The effect of oceanic advection on the predictability of sea surface temperature (SST) is investigated in the framework of a linear stochastic model. An analytical solution of a one-dimensional model shows that even though advection can give rise to a pair of low-frequency normal modes, no enhancement in the predictability is found in terms of domain-averaged error variance. However, a predictable component analysis shows that advection can play a role in redistributing the predictable variance. When forced with a spatially coherent stochastic forcing, advection enables certain regions to be more predictable than others. This analytical result is further examined in a more ...
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