Article: A FRAMEWORK FOR LONG-TERM ACTUARIAL PROJECTIONS OF HEALTH CARE COSTS: THE IMPORTANCE OF POPULATION AGING AND OTHER FACTORS

ABSTRACT

Ever-expanding life expectancy is increasing the size of elderly populations with profound social and economic consequences for developed nations, including future cost of their health care systems. Most existing long-term health care cost projections are driven mainly by changing demographics (aging populations). This simplified approach fails to recognize the many variables, and complicated interactions among them, affecting the future of health, health care, and health care costs. This study presents a framework incorporating key health care cost drivers. Using the framework, the study then introduces three plausible futures for health care along with broad, nonmodeled estimates ...

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