When, where, and WiMax: a realistic look at an emerging wireless-broadband technology.(design feature)

Certain circles in the tech industry have been buzzing lately about something called WiMax. People are saying that WiMax is the long-awaited "third pipe"--a wireless technology that will compete with DSL and cable in the last mile of broadband networks. They're predicting massive consumer adoption.

If that scenario sounds familiar, you're not suffering from deja vu. Rewind to 2000, and you'll see that pundits back then were also pumped up about the idea of wireless in the last mile. Forecasts called for rapid consumer uptake, and major companies placed some large bets.

They lost. True, a relatively small but thriving industry today provides wireless-broadband service. But those companies largely serve rural areas in which cable and DSL are not available, or they target enterprise customers. The service providers that attempted large-scale consumer rollouts of wireless broadband--notably Sprint--took a bath.

Now comes WiMax, and everybody's getting all worked up again. It's no accident, by the way, that the name sounds like "WiFi." Although the two technologies are different (see box "Surface similarity" on the Web version of this article at www.ednasia.com), WiMax proponents would like nothing better than to emulate the smashing success of 802.11. But perhaps because of the association, hype about WiMax is threatening to outrun reality even before vendors ship a single product.

Still, WiMax does hold promise. And, given the support it's gathering, it's likely to have a bright future. But how bright? And how soon?

Tight focus

Let's start with what Wi-Max is, exactly. To be accurate, it's a marketing name that a group of companies has bestowed upon a certain type of wireless technology that adheres to certain derivations of the IEEE 802.16 standard.

The group of companies calls itself the WiMax Forum. Now boasting more than 80 members, it serves the same purpose that the WiFi Alliance serves for 802.11: promoting the technology and certifying product interoperability. …

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